Olune

Before you build · Stage 2: check demand

Before you open Cursor or Lovable: a pre-build check for your app idea

Idea validation for vibe coding: seven checks, ordered from cheapest to costliest, each with a pass signal and a point where you stop. Run them before the first prompt in Cursor, Lovable, Bolt, v0, Replit or Claude Code.

Updated

Key takeaways

  • Run seven checks in order of cost and stop at the first one that fails: who pays, five searches, three recent complaints, what buyers pay now, the case against from your AI, the cost of one AI action, then five conversations or a smoke test.
  • A working app is weak evidence on its own. An NBER working paper (revised September 2026) found that new app creation rose sharply across four major software marketplaces while total usage did not increase.
  • Ask your chat assistant for the case against, with a link for every claim, then open every link. A study of five assistants found they lean toward agreeing with the user. The prompts are on idea validation prompts.
  • After a free sign-in, Olune covers the competitor and complaint steps, adds search demand, and returns Cook it, Sleep on it or Kill it. It does not search the App Store, Google Play or the Chrome Web Store, talk to buyers, or price your AI calls.
  • Our rule of thumb (editorial): build when a stranger who fits your buyer has done something that costs them time or money; wait when one check is still open; drop when nobody has complained about the problem in the past year.

Why check when building takes a weekend

Cursor, Claude Code, Lovable, Bolt, v0 and Replit can turn a prompt into a working first version over a weekend. That speed makes the build feel like the test. Two things say it is a poor one, and builders are asking for a better check.

  • More apps, no more use. An NBER working paper by Demirer, Musolff and Yang (issued May 2026, revised September 2026) put the cumulative effect of autonomous coding agents at about 240% more commits, which fell to about 80% more projects and about 30% more releases. Across four major software marketplaces, the number of new apps rose sharply while total usage did not increase.[1]
  • The weekend is the cheap part. The domain, the landing page, the launch posts and the weeks of asking how to get users come after the build. In one r/vibecoding thread (March 2026), a reply describes two weeks of building after ChatGPT, Claude and Replit all called the idea great, then finding out it would not work. In an r/microsaas post (August 2026), the poster describes a call with a founder who brought three polished products built in one quarter and said building them had felt like the validation.[5], [6]
  • Builders are asking for this check. r/vibecoding threads in 2026 ask how to tell an idea is worth building before weeks go into it, and how to decide what not to build. Most steps below are desk work: a sentence, a few searches, a prompt, some arithmetic. Only the last step needs other people.[10], [11]

Things that feel like validation but are not

Each of these shows up in builder threads as a reason to start building. None of them shows that a stranger will use or pay for the app.

Things that feel like validation but are not
It feels like proofWhy it does not prove demandWhat counts insteadEvidence
It works. I built it.A working app shows the tools work. Market data shows more apps being made without more total use.A stranger who fits your buyer takes an action that costs them time or money.NBER w35275; r/microsaas thread, August 2026
ChatGPT, Claude or Replit said it is a great ideaAssistants often tell users what they want to hear, and people tend to prefer answers that agree with them. One builder spent two weeks on an idea all three praised.Ask for the case against, with a link for every claim, and open every link.Sharma et al. 2023; OpenAI, April 2025; r/vibecoding thread, March 2026
Friends and family said they would use itFriends want to be kind, so their yes costs them nothing (editorial). The Mom Test, a book on customer conversations, starts from the premise that the people you ask may be lying to you.Ask strangers about the last time the problem happened and what they did about it.The Mom Test (Rob Fitzpatrick)
Upvotes, likes or a launch-day spikeA builder in r/vibecoding got a few Reddit upvotes and no users, impressions on X and no clicks, and a small Product Hunt spike that died.People who come back and use it twice, or pay.r/vibecoding thread, April 2026
Free waitlist or beta signupsAn email address costs nothing to give. An r/SaaS poster (April 2026) asked why so many founders report signups and no paying customers.A booked call, a deposit or a preorder at a stated price.r/SaaS thread, April 2026; editorial
High search volume for the topicSearches show interest in a topic. They do not show that anyone would switch to your app or pay for it. (Editorial. Olune uses search demand as one of three research signals, never on its own.)Complaints about the problem plus money already spent on it.Editorial

Thread dates are as posted. Threads re-read 2026-10-13.[1], [2], [3], [4], [5], [6], [7], [8], [9]

The pre-build check

Run the steps in order. They go from cheapest (a sentence) to costliest (other people). Each has a pass signal and a point where you stop. The thresholds are our editorial judgement for a solo builder with no audience. Each step ends with what Olune does for it; the full list is on the app idea validator page. The score in step 1 needs no account. The research named in the other Olune lines runs after a free sign-in.

  1. Step 1: Write who pays, in one sentence

    Use this shape: [a specific kind of person] who [has this problem] when [moment], and today uses [current fix]. Pass: a stranger could read it and name three real people who fit. Stop: if the sentence says "everyone", "small businesses" or "people who want to be more productive", narrow it before you go on. If the only user is you and you want no business, skip the rest and build it for yourself. Olune: does this step in part. It restates your idea and scores it on seven dimensions, including pain level, reach and willingness to pay. Three of the seven (zone fit, advantage, buildability) depend on what you say about yourself, so say who you are and how you would reach buyers.

  2. Step 2: Run five searches for who already does it

    Search 1: the obvious query. Search 2: Product Hunt. Search 3: the App Store or Chrome Web Store, if that is where your app would live. Search 4: the narrower version you have in mind. Search 5: a past-year Reddit complaint search. The exact search strings are in the five-search check. Pass: you can name the main incumbents and one specific thing they miss. Stop: free tools from large companies hold page one, or the platform owner already ships the feature, and you cannot name a gap. Olune: does this step in part. It runs three Google searches plus one Google search limited to Product Hunt, and lists up to six competitors. It does not search the App Store, Google Play or the Chrome Web Store, so check those by hand.

  3. Step 3: Find three complaints from the past year

    Search Reddit, forums and review sites for the problem in your buyer's words, limited to the past year. A Google search such as site:reddit.com "<incumbent or problem>" frustrating OR alternative OR "looking for" is a start. Look for posts that name a tool, a cost or a workaround. Pass: three different people describe the problem in specific terms in the last 12 months. Stop: all you find is builders pitching the same app, people asking for app ideas, or posts more than a year old. Olune: does this step. It reads public Reddit threads found through Google (not the Reddit API) and searches Hacker News. It also checks search demand for phrases a buyer might type, which this manual step skips.

  4. Step 4: Check what buyers pay now

    Open the pricing pages of the incumbents from step 2. In the threads from step 3, look for paid or painful workarounds: a spreadsheet someone maintains, an assistant, an agency, a plugin. A reply in an r/vibecoding validation thread says the cheapest signal is a buyer already putting up with a clumsy workaround that costs them. Pass: buyers already spend money, or a lot of time, on the problem. Stop: every buyer you found uses a free tool and nobody complains about it. Olune: does this step in part. Its willingness-to-pay score is an estimate, and competitor rows show pricing when the research finds it. It cannot tell you what a buyer would pay you.[10]

  5. Step 5: Ask your AI for the case against

    In ChatGPT, Claude or your coding tool's chat, ask it to argue that the idea will fail, to label every claim as sourced (with a link) or an assumption, and to end with the one fact that would kill it. Then open every link. Sharma et al. found that AI assistants often tell users what they want to hear, and a reply in an r/vibecoding thread says AI sided with whichever way the question was framed. Builders in r/vibecoding tell each other to ask AI to kill the app for the same reason. Ready-made prompts are on idea validation prompts. Pass: the case against rests on assumptions you can test in steps 6 and 7. Stop: it rests on a sourced fact you cannot answer, such as a free incumbent that already does the job. Olune: is LLM-assisted too, and its results can vary between runs. What it adds is search, competitor and thread data fetched for your idea, and a rule that one fatal signal means Kill it.[2], [10], [12]

  6. Step 6: Price one AI action against your plan

    Skip this step if your app makes no AI model calls. Otherwise estimate the cost of one action: input tokens times the input price plus output tokens times the output price, at the model's list price per million tokens. Our working assumption across these pages is 2,000 input and 600 output tokens per action. Multiply by the actions a heavy user takes in a month, add payment fees, and compare the total with your planned price. Per-call costs by model are in cost per call and fees in payment fees. Pass: a heavy user's monthly model cost is a tenth of your price or less (editorial). Stop: a heavy user would cost you more than they pay and you cannot cap or meter usage. In between, plan a usage cap or a higher price before you build. Olune: does not do this. It does not model your costs or your pricing.

  7. Step 7: Talk to five buyers, or run a smoke test

    Find five strangers who match your step 1 sentence, not friends. Ask about the last time the problem happened, what they did about it and what it cost them, and do not pitch (see how to talk to customers). Or run a smoke test: put up a one-page offer and share it where the step 3 complaints were posted. The page needs four things: who it is for, the problem in their words, a price, and one action that costs them something, such as booking a call or paying a refundable deposit. Pass: most of the people you talk to can describe a recent, specific time the problem hit them, and at least one person takes an action that costs them time or money. Stop: nobody can remember the last time it happened, or the offer reaches the people who complained and nobody takes the action. Olune: does not do this step. It cannot talk to buyers or run a page for you. After Cook it or Sleep on it, it can generate an interview script and landing page copy on request. Kill it gets neither.[9]

Two ideas run through the check (worked example)

Both come from the evidence behind our app ideas verdicts. Searches are Google US, October 2026. The calls are editorial.

  • Invoice generator for freelancers: stops at step 2. Step 2: in our check on 2026-10-13, 7 of the 9 organic results on Google's first page for invoice generator for freelancers were products, all free per their titles, including Zoho Invoice, Canva and Adobe Express, plus a Wise invoice template. Free tools from large companies hold page one, and we could not name a gap they leave for the generic version, so the check ends here. Drop it as a business. It is still fine to learn on.[13]
  • Google-review requests for one contracting trade: passes steps 2 and 3, waits at step 4. Step 2: the narrower search google review request app for contractors showed 2 dedicated tools among guides, Facebook posts and Reddit threads. Step 3: a contractor, an HVAC business owner and a small-business owner describe the problem in their own words in r/Contractor, r/GoogleMyBusiness and r/smallbusiness threads posted between October 2025 and March 2026, inside the 12 months before our check. Step 4 is open: review platforms such as GatherUp and field-service suites such as Jobber already send review requests, so find out what one trade pays for now. That makes it Wait under the rule of thumb below. The single test that would settle it: ask five owners in that trade what they use for review requests today and what it costs them.[14], [15], [16], [17], [18], [19]

Our rule of thumb (editorial): build, wait or drop

This is our judgement for a solo builder using AI coding tools, with no audience, building evenings and weekends. It is not a research finding and it is not how Olune decides (that comes next).

  • Build. You can name the buyer in one sentence, you found three specific complaints from the past year, buyers already spend money or real time on the problem, you can name what the incumbents miss, a heavy user covers their AI cost, and at least one stranger has taken an action that cost them something. Build the smallest version that serves that one buyer.
  • Wait. The complaints are real, but one check is still open: nobody you spoke to pays for anything today, or you cannot yet say what the incumbents miss. Write down the single test that would settle it, run it, then decide. If you build anything in the meantime, build only the page or prototype that runs that test.
  • Drop. No specific complaints in the past year, or free tools from large companies own page one and you cannot name a gap, or the platform owner already ships it, or a heavy user would cost more than they pay. Drop it as a business. It can still be a good learning project.

How Olune decides

Olune's verdict is written by a language model following instructions in Olune's code. Paraphrased from those instructions as read on 2026-10-13: Cook it when the evidence is strong enough that not building would be the mistake, meaning the pain is real, the market is reachable, the founder has an edge and the competition is beatable. Kill it when there is at least one fatal signal, such as no real pain (low scores and silent communities), saturated competition with no angle, or a fit problem so severe the founder cannot ship. Sleep on it when there is real signal and real risk; the reasoning is told to name the one experiment or data point that would turn it into Cook it. The model is told not to fall back on Sleep on it by default.

That makes Olune stricter than our rule of thumb in one way. Our rule counts passes. Olune lets one fatal signal outweigh them. So you can pass every step on this page and still get Kill it, for example when the competitor research finds a saturated market and your description gives no angle. Kill is a normal outcome. A Kill it gets no Build Kit. It can generate 3 to 5 pivots on request instead, such as a narrower audience or a different way to charge.

The analysis is LLM-assisted, so two runs of the same idea can differ. Read the reasoning and the threads and competitors it names, and keep steps 6 and 7 for yourself, because Olune does not do them.

Get a first pass on steps 2 to 4

Paste your step 1 sentence and say who you are and how you would reach buyers. Olune scores it on seven dimensions without an account. A free sign-in then runs the research: search demand for phrases a buyer might type, competitors from Google and Product Hunt, and public Reddit threads found through Google. You get Cook it, Sleep on it or Kill it, with the reasoning. Free, 3 a day, no card. It does not talk to buyers or price your AI calls, so steps 6 and 7 stay with you.

Free score, no account. The research needs a free sign-in.

Check the idea before the first prompt

Describe your app, who it is for and what they use today. Olune scores it free, then a free sign-in runs the research on search demand, competitors and public complaints, and returns Cook it, Sleep on it or Kill it with the reasoning. Kill is a normal answer, and it costs less to hear it before the build than after.

Free score, no account. The research needs a free sign-in.

Common questions

Is a landing page enough to validate an app idea?

Only if visitors take an action that costs them something, such as booking a call or placing a preorder at a stated price. Free email signups show mild interest, and a page nobody visits tells you nothing, so send it to the places where your buyers already complain about the problem.

Can ChatGPT validate my app idea?

Not on its own. A chat model can critique an idea and, with browsing on, run searches, but research on sycophancy shows assistants tend to agree with the user, and chat models have been measured inventing sources (see idea validation prompts). Use it to write the case against (step 5), then check every claim yourself or with a tool that fetches search, competitor and thread data.

What if similar apps already exist?

Existing apps often mean people want the job done, so they are a reason to stop only when you cannot name what they miss (editorial). Run the five searches, read complaints about the incumbents, and see my app idea already exists for when competition is a good sign and when it is a stop sign.

How many people should I talk to before building?

Five strangers who match your one-sentence buyer is our working minimum (editorial). If most of them describe a recent, specific time the problem hit them and one takes an action, keep going; if not, talk to five more or stop. Olune's answer on validation time puts a fuller pass at five to ten conversations.

Should I build it anyway as a learning project?

Yes, if learning is the goal. A dropped business idea can still teach you a stack or a tool. Decide which one you are doing before you start, because a learning project does not need users and a business does.

Sources

Each number in brackets on this page points here. Prices and limits change; the date is when we read the page.

  1. [1]NBER Working Paper 35275, "Writing Code vs. Shipping Code: Productivity Effects Across Generations of AI Coding Tools" (Demirer, Musolff, Yang; issued May 2026, revised September 2026) · accessed
  2. [2]Sharma et al., "Towards Understanding Sycophancy in Language Models", arXiv 2310.13548 (2023, v4 2025) · accessed
  3. [3]OpenAI, "Sycophancy in GPT-4o: What happened and what we're doing about it" (2025-04-29) · accessed
  4. [4]Simon Willison, note on OpenAI's GPT-4o sycophancy rollback (2025-04-30) · accessed
  5. [5]r/vibecoding, "Feels like building got easier but knowing what to build got harder" (2026-03-25) · accessed
  6. [6]r/microsaas, "The biggest problem with vibe coding is premature commitment" (2026-08-03) · accessed
  7. [7]r/vibecoding, "vibe coding made building easy... marketing is still the boss fight" (2026-04-27) · accessed
  8. [8]r/SaaS, "Why does everyone in this sub have users but no paying customers?" (2026-04-02) · accessed
  9. [9]The Mom Test, Rob Fitzpatrick (book site) · accessed
  10. [10]r/vibecoding, "Vibe coders: how do you decide an idea is worth building..." (2026-06-07) · accessed
  11. [11]r/vibecoding, "How do you decide what NOT to build?" (2026-04-03) · accessed
  12. [12]r/vibecoding, "So this is very important ask Ai to kill your app" (2026-06-19) · accessed
  13. [13]Google search, US: 'invoice generator for freelancers' · accessed
  14. [14]Google search, US: 'google review request app for contractors' · accessed
  15. [15]r/smallbusiness, "How do you actually get customers to leave Google reviews..." (2026-03-09) · accessed
  16. [16]r/GoogleMyBusiness, "Why won't customers leave Google reviews even when..." (2025-10-27) · accessed
  17. [17]r/Contractor, "How to automate my review process?" (2025-10-16) · accessed
  18. [18]GatherUp, online review and reputation software (home page) · accessed
  19. [19]Jobber, "Review Request Software for Service Pros" (feature page) · accessed

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Part of the vibe coding guide: what to check before, during and after the build.